Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,622,612$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,628,751.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,628,751.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $97,087$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(8.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,338.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(97,338.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,164,286$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,151$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(6.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,018.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(88,018.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,466$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(358 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,811.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,811.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,367$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,577$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(962 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,080.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,080.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $299$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(25.3 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{312.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(312.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,999$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,856$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,155.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 62.8)}}\) (asimptote \(113,155.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,179$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(196 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,434.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13,434.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,253$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,422$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(939 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,891.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17,891.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $458$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(68.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{462.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(462.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,110$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,477$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(78.5 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,307.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 69.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,307.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $167$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(14.4 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 47.3)}}\) (asimptote \(236.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,871$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,931$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(344 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,916.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,916.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $81$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(14.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(82.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $179$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,819$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(38.4 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,527.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 64.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,527.0\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.24 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,216$ on 2020-05-23
